EM COMMENT

Who will be the next UK prime minister: Liz Truss v. Rishi Sunak
By Padmashree Anandhan

When the contest for leading the conservative party began, there were eight party leaders from different backgrounds competing for the UK prime ministership. After three rounds of voting, former chancellor Rishi Sunak topped the list followed by foreign secretary Liz Truss. With Truss cutting close, the voting proportion has switched in favour of Truss with Conservative party member’s support, where the Opinium snap poll showed the lead of 47 per cent for Truss over 38 per cent for Sunak. The candidates will now involve in the campaign and debates, while the 175000 members vote which will be declared on 05 September. When it was to compete with Penny Mordaunt or Suella Braverman, Sunak had an easy majority in polls, but comparing Truss’s record and reputation within the party, the possibility of winning for Sunak hangs low.

Liz Truss
Truss, who was nowhere in the top three of the first round, has now beaten Sunak due to her growing support within the party. The reasons are, that Truss is one of the long-standing members, and her promise of immediate tax cuts has turned the winds in favour. She assures to create “low-tax and low-regulation zones,” to promote more innovation. Although the decision seems to be impracticable with energy prices rising and the economy at the edge of inflation, the tax cut will only aggravate the problem. For the Party members tax cut or the economic risk is not a concern because most of them are elite or financially secured, so the changes will only impact the middle and low-income groups people. In terms of climate, Truss vows to suspend the “green levy” which is part of the energy bill paid for social and green projects. She also supports boosting UK’s nuclear energy through new reactors, and power stations and disinvesting in solar farms by cutting subsidies. On Brexit, as a keen supporter of Boris Johnson has firmly vowed to take the new legislation proposal on altering the Northern Ireland Protocol. This assures the member support of those who were under Johnson. Till now she has got culture secretary Nadine Dorries, Brexit opportunities minister Jacob Rees-Mogg and former leadership rival Suella Braverman on her side.

Rishi Sunak
Rishi Sunak, a former chancellor who started the resignation row was one of the strong candidates topping the last three rounds of the Tory leadership contest. Unlike Truss, his tax cut is conditioned on bringing inflation in control. He also promises to remove five per cent VAT on household energy upon the standard price on bills goes above GBP 3000. Apart from this Sunak also vows for increasing corporate tax to 25 per cent from 19 per cent in April 2023 and to increase UK’s defence expenditure. Sunak faces a barrier amongst the party to gaining support when compared to Truss due to his poor reputation in handling the economy and climate policy. Unlike Truss, Sunak has proposed for “energy profits levy” which has to be paid by the energy firms as a windfall tax to benefit households, pensioners, and those with a disability to meet their cost of living. In terms of climate change, he vows to replace onshore wind farms with offshore wind programmes. In terms of Brexit, Sunak holds a rigid stance on restructuring the EU laws and opposes Northern Ireland Protocol, as he argues it causes to the instability for UK’s economy.

Who might lead the Conservative party?
The quest for a new leader before the end of term is not new for the Conservatives, it is the second time in the last six years, that the leader has been removed. Comparing both Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, both candidates lack in addressing the climate and Brexit issues, which is observed as a common practice of the Conservatives. To get through the final voting from the 1,75,000 candidates, being in favour of a party is important, keeping Sunak and Truss on the start line, Sunak’s work on the employment scheme during the pandemic earned his place, but his hard-line approach to taxes and cost of living are the factors reducing his chance to victory. Whereas Truss, who does not have a workable long-term economic plan has managed to showcase herself as a convenable leader to lead the party till the next elections.

What next for the UK?
Regardless of the next leader, UK’s economy is already on the trajectory of an economic downturn. The growth line began to underperform from 2010 when the Tories took over. The slow recovery rate from the pandemic and unexpected prolonging of the Ukraine war has cost UK’s economy further resulting in negative growth. In the 1970s the bank interest rates shot up and now the same is expected to happen with the borrowing costs. Truss has campaigned to look into “Threadneedle Street’s mandate,” which is used to meet the inflation target. Here the real problem is not only the war, and pandemics but also the impending unemployment rates which cannot be settled by cutting interest rates. Therefore, whether it is Truss or Sunak, the reviving of the economy into its track will be a long game for the UK. The selected leader will face a hard time proving until the 2024 elections.

War in Ukraine: Day 161
By Padmashree Anandhan 
 
War on the ground
On 03 August, Ukraine’s prosecutor general Andriy Kostin and US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink met to discuss the cooperation on efforts towards war crime investigation, anti-corruption, and justice reforms. According to Kostin: “Effective coordination on the part of the prosecutor's office is key both for intensifying the work of the law enforcement system and for projects of international partnership support.”

In the daily address, Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Estonia’s foreign minister, Urmas Reinsalu for agreeing to support the reconstruction process to start back schools. Ukraine will be building back the destroyed schools, kinder gardens, and universities in the Zhytomyr region with help from the Estonian government.  Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal who also visited Ukraine confirmed on the inclusion of arms supply to Ukraine as part of its budget and appreciated the long-standing efforts of Ukraine in the war.

On 03 August, Ukraine’s intelligence directorate released a statement on the findings of the treatment of the prisoners of war. It reported that the POWs were tortured, went through physical humiliation, and were psychologically demoralized to make them confess the war crimes of Ukraine.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 03 August, the Russian defence ministry accused Ukraine of torturing, starving, and cutting off medical supplies. Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin blamed the West for holding Ukraine accountable for it. He said that Russia has been taking measures to align with the Geneva Conventions when it came to the treatment of POWs, he also claimed that Russia had held 40 weekly meetings with the UN and ICRC.

Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reported on the draft agreement that was framed in the Istanbul meeting to settle the differences between Russia and Ukraine. He said: “Russia is ready [for a peace deal], the Ukrainian side is well-aware of our terms. One way or another, they will be fulfilled.”

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 
On 03 August, the US Senate held a vote to approve Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO. In the voting, two-thirds of the majority voted in favor of the ratification of the accession process. According to US President Joe Biden: “This historic vote sends an important signal of the sustained, bipartisan US commitment to NATO, and to ensuring our Alliance is prepared to meet the challenges of today and tomorrow.” So far France, Germany, Canada, and Italy have already green-signalled the accession.

The first ship which left from Ukraine port of Odesa on 02 August was green-signaled by Turkey to continue its route to Lebanon. At the same Zelenskyy was skeptical about the continuation of the grain export due to potential intervention from Russia. The Razoni ship carries 26,527 tonnes of corn which first entered the Bosporus strait to get clearance from Turkish inspection.

On 03 August, an intelligence update from the UK ministry of defence, observed that Ukraine's recent attack on Russia’s train in Kherson will make it challenging for Russia to re-do its railway links and force it use the Crimean route to transport its supplies. It said: “It is likely we will see an increase in civilians attempting to flee Kherson and the surrounding area as hostilities continue and food shortages worsen. This will create pressure on transport nodes and routes, likely resulting in measures to control movement being implemented.”

Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz said that the turbine (40 feet) which was sent for repairs to Canada was now ready to be shipped back to Russia, but Russia has conditioned that it will receive the shipping only after assurance that the turbine will not be applicable to western sanctions. Therefore, the repaired turbine remains stranded in the Siemens Energy factory.

On 03 August, Switzerland’s federal council adopted a new set of sanctions on Russia to align with the EU’s sanctions on gold products. It also reiterated its support for fighting against the global food crisis and assured us that measures against Russia would not affect the trade lines for agricultural and food products. The federal council also announced on measures relating to technical and linguistic adjustments to the existing regulations as part of the alignment package.

The Global Fallouts 
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 03 August, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced the launch of a “fact-finding mission” to look into the attacks that took place in the Olenivka prison where more than 40 prisoners of war were killed.

On 02 August, USAID Deputy Administrator, Isobel Coleman held a meeting with the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Director for Europe, Hans Kluge where both announced a joint support package of USD 1.8 million to Ukraine for monitoring any spread of infections or disease. Till now USAID has given USD 15.5 million as health support to Ukraine.

On 02 August, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) announced a new package of USD 40 million to address the war-induced grain shortages. The project is funded by Canada and will ease the stored grains through providing technical equipment. Director of the FAO Office of Emergencies and Resilience said: “FAO is responding immediately to this situation while taking a longer-term view and looking to invest in durable solutions that build on sectoral capacity, in coordination with the Government at national and local levels.”

References
“Brink says U.S. will continue expert support in investigating Russian war crimes,” Ukrinform, 03 August 2022
“Ukraine is grateful to Estonia for real support - President at a meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Estonia,” president.gov.ua, 03 August 2022
“Reinsalu in Kyiv: Winter is coming, rebuilding Ukraine must start now,” ERR News, 03 August 2022
“Russia-Ukraine updates: UN to look into attack that killed Ukrainian POWs in Donetsk,” Deutsche Welle, 03 August 2022
“Ukrainian POWs tortured in Olenivka to be used for Russian propaganda – intelligence,” Ukrinform, 03 August 2022
“Russia accuses Ukraine of mistreating POWs,” RT, 03 August 2022
“Russia ready for Ukraine peace deal – Kremlin,” RT, 03 August 2022
“US Senate backs Finland and Sweden NATO membership bids,” Deutsche Welle, 03 August 2022
Phelan Chatterjee, “Nord Stream 1: The 12-metre turbine threatening Europe's gas supply,” BBC, 03 August 2022
“Ukraine: Switzerland adopts new sanctions,” The Federal Council, The portal of the Swiss Government, 03 August 2022
“Defence Intelligence update,” Ministry of Defence twitter, 03 August, 2022
“Deputy Administrator Coleman’s Meeting With World Health Organization Europe Regional Director Dr. Hans Kluge,” usaid.gov, 03 August 2022
“Ukraine: FAO, Canada join forces to address grain storage deficit,” ukraine.un.org, 03 August 2022

IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

FRANCE
The national assembly approves a new package to fight inflation
On 03 August, the centrist alliance, Renaissance under France's president Emmanuel Macron managed to push forward a EUR 20 billion package to counter the cost of living crisis in the country. Although the conservative Republicans and the far-right National Rally supported the package in the national assembly during the final vote, the left coalition, NUPES, was against it. The package looks to combat inflation in the country that was increased by rising food and energy prices. Such measures enable a boost in pensions and particular welfare programs by four per cent and a cap on rent increases by 3.5 per cent.  The package also permits private companies to offer annual tax-free bonuses of up to EUR 6000 which was increased from EUR 1000. It also allows the installation of a floating Liquified Natural Gas terminal in the port city of Le Havre. ("French lawmakers endorse €20 billion anti-inflation package," Deutsche Welle, 03 August 2022)

France was accused of discriminating against a Muslim woman for wearing a hijab
On 03 August, the United Nations Human Rights Committee ruled that France had discriminated against a Muslim woman who was prohibited to attend vocational training in a public school while wearing a hijab. Naima Mezhoud was prevented from entering the school by the head teacher for wearing a Muslim head scarf in 2010. UNHRC ruled that France had committed religious and gender-based discrimination by refusing Mezhoud participation in the vocational training due to wearing a hijab. France did not respond to the UNHRC decision and is unlikely to comply with it. France follows strict secularism. President Emmanuel Macron argues that Islamism has jeopardized secularism in France while the Muslim community complains that their rights are targeted and chipped away by the government. The ruling stated that France has to compensate Mezhoud financially for six months and to offer the vocational course if she wishes. It also warned France to make sure that this never happens again. (Juliette Jabkhiro, "France discriminated against hijab-wearing vocational trainee -U.N. document," Reuters, 03 August 2022)

Nuclear plants reduce outputs due to the rise in temperature in the rivers
On 03 August, France's largest nuclear energy supplier, Électricité de France (EDF), said that it would temporarily reduce the energy output in the nuclear power stations near Rhone and Garonne rivers. The 84 per cent state-owned energy company is forced to decrease its energy output due to heatwaves increasing the temperature of the rivers. The rise in river temperature results in limitations on the usage of river water to cool down power plants. According to EDF, there won't be a complete cut-off of energy production but rather a minimum level is maintained to keep the grid steady. Half of EDF's 56 nuclear plants are offline due to planned maintenance and repair corrosion. The Ukraine war has increased the energy prices resulting in an energy crunch in France in turn rising the market price for electricity. (Julia Kollewe, "EDF cuts output at nuclear power plants as French rivers get too warm," The Guardian, 03 August 2022)

ICELAND
Volcanic eruption near the Kelflavik international airport
On 03 August, Fagradalsfjall mountain, near the capital Reykjavik in Iceland, was seen to pour out smoke and lava from its side. The volcano near the capital's Keflavik international airport erupted following a series of earthquakes. The same mountain saw an eruption last year that lasted for six months. A code red alert was declared by the government but will be lowered to code orange if it seems to be an eruption like last year. There was no immediate risk or damage to any infrastructures and planes were prohibited from flying over the site. It was harmless when compared to the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull volcanic eruption that disrupted 100000 flights and forced evacuations of residents due to smoke and ash in the atmosphere. (Nikolaj Skydsgaard and Terje Solsvik, "Volcano erupts near Iceland's capital in seismic hot spot," Reuters, 03 August 2022; "Iceland: Volcano erupts near key Keflavik airport," Deutsche Welle, 03 August 2022)

THE UK
Acute water shortage in England
On 03 August, the UK was concerned about heading toward drought due to an acute shortage of water. The rainfall was down by 76 per cent in July according to the Met Office and the average flow of the rivers was said to be below normal levels. With heatwaves, added overconsumption of water has reduced the groundwater level in the country. Water companies are considering banning hosepipes in the UK. The drought has brought forth dry land which resulted in wildfires and the loss of crops and shortages. The government has advised its citizens to reduce the consumption and wastage of water and took measures for the impending drought. ("Is the UK heading for a drought and will there be more hosepipe bans?," BBC, 03 August 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
The EU urges Baku and Yerevan to have peaceful negotiations
On 03 August, the EU demanded an immediate end to the fight between the armies of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Three people were reported to have died from the skirmish where one was from the Azerbaijan force and the other two were from the Karabakh army. The conflict has endangered the delicate truce between the two countries. Azerbaijan alleged that it was just retaliating against a terrorist attack by the illegal Armenian militant forces. The Armenian foreign ministry urged the international community to take action against the aggressive attitude of Azerbaijan. The EU implored both parties to go into negotiations rather than turn toward violence. Russia's defence ministry accused Azerbaijan of breaching the ceasefire that Moscow brokered in 2020. Russia declared that it was taking measures to stabilize the situation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. ("Nagorno-Karabakh: Azerbaijan, Armenia trade blame over renewed clashes," Deutsche Welle, 03 August 2022)